My guess is they’re not a 50/50 binary. Like how in sports betting one team is favored over another to win, maybe its a 45/55 split. So if any given military action has a 5% chance of happening and a 95% chance of non happening, the overall aggregate of bets on this kind of thing should pretty closely mirror that 95/5 split.

Ask him to share the passwords to all his bank accounts, when he refuses to just highlight that there are plenty of non-illegal things that you want to keep hidden.

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