Polling currently indicates many seats flipping to Dems. Assume for now that this happens and both houses of congress are majority Democrat.
What are the odds that Trump triggers some sequence of events that lead to large-scale domestic backlash? Some theoretical options
- Refuse to accept results of election
- Significantly escalate foreign wars
- False-flag operation of some form. Bombing, orchestrated AI take over, infrastructure collapse
- Orchestrate large scale rioting with agitators
What are the odds something like this occurs leading to a significant enough impact to negatively affect most people?
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He’s already saying “if they’re honest” meaning if he wins. 100%
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He’s already said he’s just been waiting for after midterms. 100%
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Way more likely they let something happen. If they try to plan it they’ll fuck it up. ~50% chance they let it happen, 5% chance they pull off planning one.
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It’s very likely he tries to send supporters to disrupt elections at the state level, but he doesn’t have the numbers to do it effectively, even if he sends ICE. 10%, I think he’ll be talked down by people planning long term and willing to punt Trump’s remaining two years.
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I think this is a pretty valid question especially for those outside the USA who don’t have context of what’s going on the ground. I have been wondering this too.
For me though it’s not so much of an oddly question more of a what are the likely outcomes? as TBH given the last two years clear decorum and rationality has disappeared.
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100%. Obviously. That’s what he has done (culminating in Jan. 6, 2021), is still doing, and will continue to do. Get ready for hundreds of lawsuits, illegal confiscation of ballots, rhetoric that the Dems rigged the elections, etc. Supposedly Dems have been preparing with an army of lawyers, but Dump and minions are sure to come up with stuff they aren’t ready for, including outright refusal to seat the winners and saying “Who’s gonna make us?” And before that, we still have to get through Election Day first.
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Very high. He has already been saying for some time he’s waiting until after the midterms to escalate in Iran. Of course you never know exactly what he’ll do when since he’s easily manipulated by Putin, Netanyahu, Stephen Miller, etc.
3 & 4) Not very likely, especially #3 which they should have done sooner if they were going to. Also remember this buffoon is mostly a drooling dotard signing whatever papers are put in front of him, so better to ask what the technofascist broligarchs and the fascists running the administration have planned, not him. It may depend on the margin of victory at the polls. Larger margin/more states won = less chance the people will go along with their rhetoric. Low margin = higher chance. They’ve set it up for challenging Alaska already, but if enough other states go Blue, that shouldn’t matter.
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Far more likely there will be mild protests and general whining if Trump rigs the votes to favor Republicans into winning (y’know, like they already do with jerrymandering and voter role purges). Though liberals don’t have the balls to do anything but whine, and there are far too few lefties to create an actual movement, so the real shitshow will be down the road when Trump installs himself as permanent Dear Leader.
None. The majority of people don’t give a single fuck until something affects them directly, and will happily live under fascism as long as someone else is taking the brunt of it
Rule 6.
I don’t think the right has the juice for a popular uprising at this point. There’s a good chance the administration will escalate the war, but they’d probably do that if they won the midterms, too. It will only make them more unpopular.
A false flag operation would be a fool’s errand. My local school gets a bomb threat every week. Our infrastructure is already falling apart routinely. It’d just be hard to shock us with something like that at this point.
Unless he were to literally nuke a US city like, say, one of the California cities he was saying we could sacrifice.
Zero
Zero is silly.
Ultra-ultra low, I can respect. But you think there is zero chance trump will refuse the results of the election? That’s not reality.
He’ll absolutely question any changes that don’t favor him, but there is nothing he can do directly to stop it. The worst that can be done is give him attention as he has a melt down, but that gets media their clicks, so they will.
No I mean there is a 100% chance he will refuse and a 0% chance anyone will riot.
Ok and zero % chance he escalates wars to a point that there is backlash in a way that affects US citizens? cyber wars, etc?
I’m not sure where you’re going. Whatever is bad, that’s the way.
They’re going to blame the AI crash on the democrats and a bunch of people are going believe it.
His acknowledgement (or lack thereof) has no legal power whatsoever. He has no actual control over the elections, despite what he might try to lead people to believe. He might try to pull something he thinks is clever, but the electoral system is decentralized and all the crazy shit he tries to pull in court fails. People are so pissed off and fed up with his bullshit that any gains he might make via legally questionable tactics will likely be completely overwhelmed by a tsunami of furious voters.
So, to answer your question: Pretty damn low in my opinion. I expect a bunch of bullshit, but I also expect it will ultimately amount to nothing and these guys are gonna get their asses handed to them in the upcoming election. If extremists tried anything like a revolt, it would be completely doomed from the get-go and they would be absolutely turbo-fucked if things got genuinely violent: The public’s patience with this administration is already at an all time low.
